Headline PCE, MoM
−0.10%
68% interval −0.14 to −0.02
95% interval −0.19 to +0.08
Implied YoY 3.7% (May actual 4.1%)
3M run-rate 3.0% (with Apr, May actuals, annualised)
Core PCE, MoM
+0.20%
68% interval +0.15 to +0.33
95% interval +0.11 to +0.37
Implied YoY 3.3% (May actual 3.4%)
3M run-rate 3.1% (with Apr, May actuals, annualised)
Month-over-month change in the PCE price index, seasonally adjusted. Intervals are empirical, built from the
model’s own recent forecast errors, and are asymmetric. Roughly one print in three lands outside the 68%
interval.
Every forecast we publish is scored against the BEA first release, alongside the Wall Street consensus for the
same month. Nothing is revised after the fact and no scheduled month is omitted.
Prepared and issued by Macro Edge Research (“MER”) for informational and educational purposes only.
MER is an independent provider of macroeconomic research and is not licensed, registered or authorised as an
investment adviser, broker-dealer or financial intermediary in any jurisdiction, including Kuwait
(Law No. 7/2010 and its Executive Bylaws). Nothing here constitutes investment advice, an offer or
solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or instrument, and nothing here is
directed at Retail Clients as defined by the CMA. Forecasts are estimates, not statements of fact; they are
inherently uncertain and may prove inaccurate. Past forecast accuracy is not indicative of future accuracy
and no guarantee of any future result is offered or implied. Data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis,
the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland; MER accepts no responsibility for
third-party data.
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