Headline CPI, MoM
+0.37%
68% interval +0.27 to +0.44
95% interval +0.02 to +0.49
Implied YoY 3.3% (Jul actual 3.4%)
3M run-rate 0.1% (with Jun, Jul actuals, annualised)
Core CPI, MoM
+0.19%
68% interval +0.10 to +0.26
95% interval −0.02 to +0.37
Implied YoY 2.3% (Jul actual 2.5%)
3M run-rate 1.6% (with Jun, Jul actuals, annualised)
Month-over-month change in the consumer price index, seasonally adjusted. Intervals are empirical, built from
the model’s own recent forecast errors, and are asymmetric. Roughly one print in three lands outside the
68% interval.
Every forecast we publish is scored against the BLS first release, alongside the Wall Street consensus for the
same month. Nothing is revised after the fact and no scheduled month is omitted.
Prepared and issued by Macro Edge Research (“MER”) for informational and educational purposes only.
MER is an independent provider of macroeconomic research and is not licensed, registered or authorised as an
investment adviser, broker-dealer or financial intermediary in any jurisdiction, including Kuwait
(Law No. 7/2010 and its Executive Bylaws). Nothing here constitutes investment advice, an offer or
solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or instrument, and nothing here is
directed at Retail Clients as defined by the CMA. Forecasts are estimates, not statements of fact; they are
inherently uncertain and may prove inaccurate. Past forecast accuracy is not indicative of future accuracy
and no guarantee of any future result is offered or implied. Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics,
the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; MER accepts no
responsibility for third-party data.
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